财经论丛 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 9-18.

• 劳动经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

电子商务发展对出口贸易规模扩张的U型调节——来自中国的经验实证公共选择理论下的税收成本与社会契约形式转变

马淑琴1,陈红1,俞春晓2   

  1. 1.浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江 杭州 310018;
    2.中国建设银行杭州市分行,浙江 杭州 310006
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-05 出版日期:2018-07-10 发布日期:2018-07-02
  • 作者简介:马淑琴(1963-),女,山西运城人,浙江工商大学经济学院教授;陈红(1992-),女,河南驻马店人,浙江工商大学经济学院硕士生;俞春晓(1979-),女,浙江杭州人,中国建设银行杭州市分行财务会计部经济师。
  • 基金资助:
    浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LY17G030006);浙江省高校人文社科重点研究基地浙江工商大学应用经济学重点项目(JYTyyjj20160101);浙江省软科学研究基金重点项目(2016c25008)

The “U”-type Regulation Role of E-commerce Development in Expanding the Scale of Export Trade——An Empirical Study on China

MA Shuqin1,CHEN Hong1,YU Chunxiao2   

  1. 1.School of Economics,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310018,China;
    2.Branch of Hangzhou,Construction Bank of China,Hangzhou 310006,China
  • Received:2017-05-05 Online:2018-07-10 Published:2018-07-02

摘要: 本文将电子商务发展速度、电子商务发展程度与出口贸易规模整合在同一框架下,采用2008~2014年中国省级面板数据,藉由电子商务发展程度与出口贸易规模的关系,探究电子商务发展速度对二者关系的调节作用。研究结果发现,电子商务发展程度对出口贸易规模具有正向溢出效应,电子商务发展速度对该正向关系具有U型调节作用。电子商务发展速度较慢时,电子商务发展速度上升会抑制电子商务发展程度对出口贸易规模的正向作用;电子商务发展速度突破U型调节临界点且速度进一步加快时,则释放电子商务发展程度对出口贸易规模的正向溢出效应。本文诠释电子商务发展与出口贸易规模的动态关系,为合理制定电子商务发展政策以助力出口贸易规模扩大提供重要参考。

关键词: 电子商务发展速度, 电子商务发展程度, 出口贸易规模, U型调节

Abstract: The paper integrates the speed and the degree of E-commerce development and the scale of export trade, and then, with the use of Chinese provincial panel data from 2008 to 2014, studies the relationship between the degree of E-commerce and the scale of export trade to examine the role that the speed of E-commerce development plays in regulating the relationship of E-commerce development and the scale of export trade. The main findings are as follows: The degree of E-commerce development has a positive spillover effect on the scale of export trade, and the speed of E-commerce development has a “U”-type regulation effect on this relationship. When E-commerce development is relatively slow, the speed of E-commerce development will inhibit the positive effect that the degree of E-commerce development degree has on the scale of export trade; when the speed of E-commerce development reaches the critical point of “U”-type regulation, a further accelerated speed of E-commerce development will promote the positive spillover effect that the degree of E-commerce development has on the scale of export trade. This paper explains the dynamic relationship between E-commerce development and the scale of export trade, and provides important references for expanding the scale of export trade by formulating reasonable policies for E-commerce development.

Key words: Speed of E-commerce Development, Degree of E-commerce Development, Scale of Export Trade, “U”-type Regulation

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