Abstract: China's economic growth is facing tremendous downward pressure at present,and the problem of economic structural imbalance has become more serious. This article explores the relationship between the local governments' biased expenditure and the imbalanced economic structure from the perspective of fiscal policy. Based on the inter-provincial panel data,it establishes a common panel model and a panel VAR model to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic structure and fiscal expenditure structure,and investigate the dynamic effects of fiscal expenditure. Empirical analysis shows that fiscal expenditure bias has a long-term equilibrium relationship with imbalanced economic structure and the public investment promotes the social investment,but represses labor's and household consumption's share of income. In the short run,the public investment has positive effects on the social investment and negative effects on worker's reward. Based on these findings,this paper proposes some policy recommendations.

Key words: Biased Expenditure, Lmbalanced Economic Structure, Public Investment, The Panel VAR Model

摘要： 当前我国经济面临严峻的下行压力,经济结构失衡问题愈为凸显。本文从财政政策的视角,探求地方政府财政支出有偏性与经济结构失衡之间的关系。文章以省际面板数据为数据源,通过建立面板模型和面板向量自回归模型,考察了财政支出结构与经济结构之间的长期关系,并分析了财政支出变动对经济结构造成的短期动态冲击效应。研究认为,长期看我国的财政支出有偏性与经济结构失衡之间存在相关性,并且公共投资促进了社会总投资的增加,但对居民消费和劳动报酬相对份额的提高具有抑制作用。在短期内,公共投资对社会总投资有正向的冲击作用,而对劳动者报酬有负向的冲击作用。最后,文章提出了结构性减少公共投资等政策建议。

关键词: 财政支出有偏性, 经济结构失衡, 公共投资, 面板向量自回归模型