The Effect of China's Targeted Reserve Adjustment Policy——The Empirical Study Using the DID Model

Abstract

Abstract: This paper uses the difference in difference(DID) model to analyze the effect of targeted reserve adjustment policy, and based on it, explores the lasting effect and transition mechanism of such policy. The results are as follows: (1) Extra liquidity released by targeted RRR cut policy hasn't precisely flown into target enterprises or industries. (2) Continuous implementation of the policy hasn't improved the effect of the original policy. (3) Using the targeted reserve adjustment policy to conduct targeted guidance via commercial banks proves to be invalid. In the last part, this paper puts forward several suggestions regarding the supporting policies, the change of the targeted regulation concept and positive guidance, etc.

Key words: Targeted Reserve Adjustment, Monetary Policy, Three Agriculture, Small Business, DID Model

摘要： 采用双重差分模型对定向降准政策效果、持续实施效果以及政策传递途径和政策失效原因进行实证研究。研究结果表明:定向降准政策释放的流动性未精确流入目标企业、行业;持续实施的定向降准政策也未改善原有政策的效果;定向降准政策以商业银行作为定向引导的途径效果不佳。最后从实施配套政策、改变定向调控思路、激活引导途径等方面提出了建议。

关键词: 定向降准, 货币政策, “三农”, 小微企业, 双重差分模型

CLC Number:

F822.0

LI Qi. The Effect of China's Targeted Reserve Adjustment Policy——The Empirical Study Using the DID Model[J]. , 2017, 33(4): 37-46.

黎齐. 中国央行定向降准政策的有效性——基于双重差分模型的实证研究[J]. 财经论丛, 2017, 33(4): 37-46.

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