Abstract: The paper takes Chongqing as a case study to analyze the influencing factors of rural labor transfer with binary logistics analysis method. The results are as follows: Income expectation, career expectation, emotional expectation and city integration expectation are the main elements influencing the labor transfer decision, with the latter three having significant generational differences effect on labor transfer decision. By the method of weight law of variance, this paper explores the level of influence of various factors on transference intention of rural labor. The results show that the influence degree of each factor also has significant generational differences. Emotional expectation is the most important factor for the new generation of rural labor force, followed by income expectation, city integration expectation and career expectation. Income expectation is the most important factor for the older generation of rural labor force, followed by emotional expectation and career expectation.

Key words: Labor Transfer, Non-income Expectation Factor, Driving Factor of Transfer, Intra-generational Diversity

摘要： 本文利用重庆市1210份样本调查数据,通过二元Logistic回归分析重点计量收入预期、职业预期、情感预期及城市融入预期等因素对农村劳动力城乡转移意愿的代际影响。研究结果发现,除收入预期外,非收入预期中的职业预期、情感预期和城市融入预期对农村劳动力转移意愿的影响均存在代际差异。利用均方差法对各影响因素进行权重测度发现,老一代农村劳动力最关注的是经济收入,其次是情感预期,职业预期位列最后;新生代农村劳动力最关注的因素依次为情感预期、收入预期、城市融入预期和职业预期。

关键词: 劳动力转移, 非收入预期因素, 转移动因, 代际差异