Abstract: Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2001 to 2014,this article uses the method of threshold effects model to explore the threshold effect of institutional environment in the promotion of industrial upgrading by technological progress.The results are as follows: Both the marketization degree and the economic openness of institutional environment have dual threshold effect, that is, low degree of marketization and low level of economic openness suppress the effect of technological progress on industrial upgrading, whereas high degree of marketization and high level of economic openness promote the effect of technical progress on industrial upgrading.The economic openness and marketization of our country are still at a low level,and the central and western regions fall far behind the eastern developed provinces in this regard.Moreover, the relation between the government and the market,the development of non-state economic sectors,the product market development,the factor market development,the development of intermediary organizations and sound laws of market indicators and economic openness in institutional environment are key dimensions in the institutional environment as well as the key to the institutional reform.

Key words: Technological Progress, Industrial Upgrading, Institutional Environment, Threshold Effect Model

摘要： 本文借助30个省区2001~2014年面板数据,运用面板门槛效应模型探究制度环境在技术进步推动产业结构升级中的门槛效应。研究结果表明,制度环境中市场化程度和经济开放度均存在双重门槛效应,低市场化程度和经济开放度抑制技术进步的产业结构升级效应,高市场化程度和经济开放度促进技术进步的产业结构升级效应;我国市场化程度和经济开放度整体处于较低水平,中西部地区明显落后于东部发达省区;在制度环境具体维度中,政府与市场关系、非国有经济发展、产品市场发育情况、要素市场发育情况和中介组织发育与法律健全五项市场化程度及经济开放度是关键维度,也是制度改革的关键。

关键词: 技术进步, 产业结构升级, 制度环境, 门槛效应