Abstract: Consistent with foreign survey results, our survey data also show that the inflation rate perceived by individual consumers is not only generally higher than the official CPI, but also displays significant heterogeneity. Why do household inflation perceptions show systematic bias and heterogeneity? This article establishes an individual inflation perception model and analyzes the formation mechanism of the bias of individual consumers’ inflation perception in the mold. The results are as follows: (1) Because of the existence of psychological bias such as “loss aversion”, “overconfidence”, “anchoring effect” and “availability”, consumers tend to over-estimate the inflation; (2) The more frequently they shop, or the worse their family economic condition is, or the less they learn about the official inflation data and conception of inflation rate, or the lower their educational level is, the more severely consumers will over-estimate the inflation.

Key words: Inflation Perception Bias, Availability, Loss Aversion, Overconfidence, Anchoring Effect

摘要： 为什么居民感受到的通货膨胀不仅普遍高于官方CPI,而且不同群体的通货膨胀感受也有显著的差异？本文研究表明:(1)由于“易得性心理法则”的作用,“理性疏忽”行为以及“损失厌恶”“过度自信”和“锚定效应”等心理偏差的存在,居民的通货膨胀感受会普遍高于实际CPI通胀率;(2)表面上看,是居民个体的性别、年龄、职业、受教育程度、收入等人口统计特征决定着消费者通胀感受偏差的大小,实际上,隐藏在这些人口统计特征背后的是消费者的购物频率、经济境况、通胀知识和信息处理能力等潜变量。

关键词: 通货膨胀感受偏差, 异质性, 损失厌恶, 过度自信, 锚定效应