Research on the Calculation and Analysis of Zhejiang Province's Potential Economic Growth Rate in the New Normal——Based on the Panel Data from 2005 to 2015

›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (11): 3-10.

Research on the Calculation and Analysis of Zhejiang Province's Potential Economic Growth Rate in the New Normal——Based on the Panel Data from 2005 to 2015

YU Jiagen¹, CUI Riming², HUANG Wenjun³

1.Business School, Zhejiang University City College, Hangzhou 310015, China;
2.School of Economics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China;
3.School of Business, Zhejiang Wanli University, Ningbo 315100, China

Received:2017-02-05 Online:2017-11-10 Published:2017-11-10

新常态下浙江潜在经济增长率的测算与分析——基于2005~2015年面板数据

俞佳根¹, 崔日明², 黄文军³

1.浙江大学城市学院商学院,浙江杭州 310015;
2.辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳 110036;
3.浙江万里学院商学院,浙江宁波 315100

作者简介:俞佳根(1982-),男,浙江富阳人,浙江大学城市学院商学院讲师,博士; 崔日明(1963-),男,内蒙古赤峰人,辽宁大学经济学院教授; 黄文军(1979-),男,山西忻洲人,浙江万里学院商学院副教授,博士。
基金资助:
浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LY17G030001);国家社会科学基金青年项目(17CJL008);国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA056);国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD017)

Abstract

Abstract: Using the panel data of cities in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2015 as the research sample, this paper calculates the potential economic growth rate of Zhejiang Province in detail according to the time varying elastic model of the structure of labor enhancement. It is found that Zhejiang's human capital output elasticity is significantly lower than that of capital stock and labor, and the output elasticity which varies among them has no significant difference. The output elasticity of labor and human capital in the northeast of Zhejiang is higher than that in the southwest. However, the output elasticity of capital stock in the southwest is higher than that in the northeast. In recent years, Zhejiang's real economic growth rate shows a trend of fluctuating slowdown. It is not only affected by the internal factors such as the potential economic growth rate changes, but also by external factors such as demand management. This paper also puts forward some related policy implications in aspects of educational system reform, demand management optimization and regional development coordination.

Key words: New Normal, Potential Economic Growth, Zhejiang Province

摘要： 本文以2005~2015年浙江省市域面板数据为样本,依据劳动增强型的结构时变弹性模型,测算浙江潜在的经济增长率。研究结果发现,浙江人力资本产出弹性明显低于资本存量和劳动力产出弹性,三者变化的幅度不明显;浙江东北部地区的劳动力和人力资本产出弹性高于西南部地区,西南部地区的资本存量产出弹性日渐高于东北部地区;浙江实际经济增长率总体呈现波动下滑态势,增速变动不仅受潜在经济增速变动等内在因素影响,也受需求管理等外在因素影响。最后,从教育体制改革、需求管理优化和区域发展协同等方面提出相关的政策启示。

关键词: 新常态, 潜在经济增长率, 浙江

CLC Number:

F015

YU Jiagen, CUI Riming, HUANG Wenjun. Research on the Calculation and Analysis of Zhejiang Province's Potential Economic Growth Rate in the New Normal——Based on the Panel Data from 2005 to 2015[J]. , 2017, 33(11): 3-10.

俞佳根, 崔日明, 黄文军. 新常态下浙江潜在经济增长率的测算与分析——基于2005~2015年面板数据[J]. 财经论丛, 2017, 33(11): 3-10.

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