Abstract: That China's regional development is not balanced shows that there are huge differences about the value of real estate, and the property tax reform must delve into the inherent object of taxation location attribute and population urbanization spatial order. This paper combines the price effect that may be caused by the property tax reform and the local government financing and regional public services into research framework, and simulates the prices trend of different urbanization stage from a new perspective. The results show that even if the property tax is to be levied in 2018, the national real estate price will still have room to rise. With the speeding up of the orderly ease of Beijing's non-capital function, the property tax has a moderate inhibitory effect on the housing prices in Beijing, while in its “nearest neighbor”, Tianjin and Hebei province, which play an important role in function ease and industrial transfer, the effect of real estate price regulation is not obvious.

Key words: Property Tax, Local Public Services, Population Flow, Spatial Stickiness

摘要： 我国区域发展极不均衡的现实表明各地房地产价值存在着巨大差异,房地产税改革必须深入探究征税对象所固有的区位属性以及人口城镇化的空间秩序。本文将房地产税改革可能引起的价格效应与地方政府融资和区域公共服务相结合,从人口流动的区位黏性这一全新视角模拟出同一税率下不同城镇化阶段地区的房地产价格走势。结果表明,即使2018年全面开征房地产税,全国房地产价格依然有上涨空间。随着有序疏解北京非首都功能的步伐日益加快,开征房地产税对北京房价有适度抑制作用,天津市与河北省作为北京的“近邻”,在功能疏解和产业转移等方面承担着重任,房地产税的价格调控效果不明显。

关键词: 房地产税, 地方公共服务, 人口流动, 空间黏性