Abstract: Based on the external demand shock, the paper discusses the relief of the city resilience to the external demand shock and the relationship between the external demand shock and the city export. The results are as follows: The external demand shock results in the biggest decrease of the export volume and variety in small cities, followed by medium-sized cities and big cities; The external demand shock decreases the number of the export destinations of big and medium-sized cities, but has no significant impact on small cities. The external demand shock has a significant negative effect on the export volume of all the cities, which is the most significant in cities of central areas, followed by those in the east and the west; The external demand shock significantly decreases the export varieties and destinations of cities in the east and central areas, but has no significant effect on cities in the west. City economic resilience can effectively relieve the negative impact caused by the external demand shock on the city export.

Key words: External Demand Shock, City Export, City Economic Resilience, SYS-GMM

摘要： 本文基于外部需求冲击视角,探讨城市经济韧性对缓解外部冲击的作用及外部需求冲击下城市经济韧性与城市出口之间的关系。研究结果发现,外部需求冲击导致小城市出口金额和出口产品种类下降幅度最大,中等城市次之,大城市最小,并使大城市、中等城市出口目的地显著下降,对小城市的影响不显著。外部需求冲击对任何规模城市出口额影响均显著为负,但对中部城市的影响最大,东部城市次之,西部城市最小,并使东部城市和中部城市出口产品种类和出口目的地显著减少,而对西部城市的影响作用不显著。城市经济韧性可有效缓解外部冲击给城市出口贸易发展造成的负面影响。

关键词: 外部需求冲击, 城市出口, 城市经济韧性, 系统GMM