Abstract: This paper estimate the effect of Two Control Zones (TCZ) policy on export intensity of high sulfur industries, and research the regional and ownership difference of such effect using difference-in-difference method and difference-in-difference-in-difference method. The result show that: Two Control Zones policy has no effect on the export intensity of high pollution industries, but it inhibit the export intensity of high sulfur industries, and there is a lagging effect. The results remain stable carrying out a plaebo test of replacement the year carried out. Two Control Zones policy has a significant negative impact on the export intensity of non-state-owned enterprises, and has a positive impact on the export intensity of the state-owned enterprises. The effect of the two control zones policy on the export intensity is more obvious in the eastern and central regions, and is not significant in the western region. The above conclusions provide necessary empirical support and decision-making basis for the rational formulation and effective implementation of China's environmental policy and foreign trade policy.

Key words: Two Control Zones Policy, Export Intensity, Environmental Regulation

摘要： 基于两控区政策这一准自然实验,本文采用倍差法和三重差分法研究两控区政策对高排硫行业出口强度的影响效应及该影响效应的地区差异和所有制差异。研究结果表明,两控区政策对高污染行业的出口强度没有显著影响,但抑制了高排硫行业的出口强度并存在滞后效应,更换政策实施年份进行安慰剂检验后结果依然稳健。两控区政策对非国有企业的出口强度具有显著负向影响,对国有企业的出口强度具有正向影响。两控区政策对出口强度的影响效应在东部和中部地区较为明显,在西部地区并不显著。以上结论为我国环境、外贸政策的合理制定及有效实施提供必要的经验支持和决策依据。

关键词: 两控区政策, 出口强度, 环境规制