Abstract:

Export market diversification and trade duration are of great significance for a steady development of the export of enterprises. Based on the firm-level micro data and the customs data from 2000 to 2006, this papaer calculates the horizontal spillover effects and the associated spillover effect of FDI, and empirically investigates the impact of FDI spillover effects on export market diversification and trade duration of indigenous firms. The findings are as follows: FDI entry increases the number of indigenous firms' export markets through forward linkages spillovers, but reduces the number of indigenous firms' export markets through backward linkages spillovers, while horizontal spillovers have no influence on export market diversification; the relationship between FDI and export market diversification is influenced by firms' ownership and mode of trade; the survival analysis finds that horizontal spillovers, forward linkages spillovers and backward linkages spillovers help to reduce the risk of indigenous firms exit export market, and prolong the duration of indigenous firms.

Key words: Foreign Direct Investment, Spillovers Effect, Export Sustainability

摘要：

基于2000~2006年中国工业企业数据和海关数据,通过构建外资水平溢出、前向关联溢出和后向关联溢出三类指标,实证检验外资溢出对本土企业出口市场多元化和贸易持续期的影响。研究结果表明,外资前向关联溢出效应扩大本土企业的出口市场数量,有利于企业实现出口市场多元化布局,但后向关联溢出效应减少出口市场数量,行业内水平溢出效应的影响则不明显,控制内生性后结果仍稳健;外资三类溢出效应对本土企业出口市场多元化的影响因企业所有制和贸易方式不同而存在差异;使用生存分析法对贸易持续期的检验发现,外资三类溢出效应均降低本土企业退出出口市场的风险率,延长企业的出口持续期。

关键词: 外资进入, 溢出效应, 出口持续性