Abstract: Based on the dynamic panel threshold model and using the balance panel data of 480 non-financial A-share listed companies from 1999 to 2016, this paper conducts a comprehensive research on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the nonlinear dynamic adjustments of corporate capital structure. It finds that with economic policy uncertainty as the transition variable, there are two regimes for the adjustments of corporate capital structure which have significant nonlinear characteristics, and the dynamic adjustment speed of capital structure will be slowed down when economic policy uncertainty is relatively high. In addition, economic policy uncertainty has a stronger effect on the capital structure's adjustment speed of listed companies in the central and western regions where the degree of marketization is relatively backward. Furthermore, compared with non-manufacturing companies, the capital structure's adjustment speed of manufacturing companies is more likely to be affected by economic policy uncertainty.

Key words: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Nonlinear Dynamic Adjustments of Capital Structure, Dynamic Panel Threshold Model

摘要： 基于动态面板阈值模型,利用480家非金融类A股上市公司1999~2016年的平衡面板数据,深入研究了经济政策不确定性与公司资本结构非线性动态调整的关系。研究发现:以经济政策不确定性为转移变量,资本结构调整存在两个区制,具有显著的非线性特征,并且资本结构动态调整速度在经济政策不确定性较高时将变慢;在市场化程度较低的中西部地区,资本结构调整速度受到经济政策不确定性的影响更大;相比非制造业公司,制造业公司的资本结构调整速度更容易受到经济政策不确定性的影响。

关键词: 经济政策不确定性, 资本结构非线性动态调整, 动态面板阈值模型