Abstract: It is an important part of the proactive fiscal policy to implement structural tax cuts, promote the tax reform, reduce the tax burden by means of tax cuts, rebates or credits, and promote the investment by enterprises and the consumption by individuals. This paper first constructs a computable general equilibrium model in line with China's tax structure, then uses this model to simulate the impact of China's structural tax cuts on the social output in recent years, and finally applies the counterfactual simulation to select the optimal structural tax cuts. The research finds that structural tax cuts do not always boost the economy, which is reflected in the following: (1) The three VAT cuts have a positive effect on the social output; (2) The increase of the individual income tax exemption has a negative effect on the social output; (3) The small and micro enterprise income tax exemption has a positive effect on the social output; (4) When the total amount of the tax reduction is the same, the tax reduction for VAT and the corporate income tax and the structural tax reduction policy for the individual income tax increase can maximize the social output.

Key words: Value-added Tax, Enterprise Income Tax, Individual Income Tax, Economic Growth

摘要： 实行结构性减税,结合推进税制改革,用减税、退税或抵免的方式减轻税收负担,是实行积极财政政策的重要内容。本文首先构建了符合中国税制结构的可计算一般均衡模型,然后利用此模型模拟了中国近年来结构性减税对社会产出的影响,并利用反事实模拟选择最优结构性减税政策。本文发现,结构性减税并不总会提振经济,体现在:(1)增值税三次下调对社会产出均有正向作用;(2)个人所得税免征扣除额提高对社会产出有负向作用;(3)小微企业所得税减免对社会产出有正向作用;(4)在相同减税总额下,对增值税和企业所得税减税,对个人所得税增税的结构性减税政策可以实现社会产出最大化。

关键词: 增值税, 企业所得税, 个人所得税, 经济增长