Abstract: To achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is a solemn commitment China has made to the world. How to optimize the top-level design of the fiscal expenditure so as to achieve sustainable green and low-carbon development is of vital importance. Based on the provincial panel data in China from 2007 to 2019, this paper systematically examines the impact of the fiscal expenditure scale and structure on carbon emissions from the perspective of new urbanization. The results show that the scale of the fiscal expenditure has a restraining effect on carbon emissions through both the direct effect and the environmental regulation effect, but promotes carbon emissions through the scale effect and the substitution effect, and the non-economic public expenditure has a significant reduction effect on carbon emissions. The new urbanization has a moderating effect on the carbon emission reduction effect of the fiscal expenditure structure. The urbanization process measured by economy and population strengthens the carbon emission reduction effect of the fiscal expenditure structure, while the urbanization measured by society and ecology weakens the carbon emission reduction effect of the fiscal expenditure structure.

Key words: Fiscal Expenditure Scale, Fiscal Expenditure Structure, Carbon Emission Reduction Effect, New Urbanization

摘要： 实现碳达峰、碳中和目标是中国向世界作出的庄严承诺,如何优化财政支出的顶层设计以实现绿色低碳发展至关重要。本文利用2007—2019年省级面板数据,以新型城镇化为切入点,系统考察了财政支出规模和结构对碳排放的影响效应。研究发现,财政支出规模通过直接效应和环境规制效应对碳排放保持抑制作用,而通过规模效应和替代效应促进了碳排放,非经济性公共支出占比的碳减排效应显著;新型城镇化建设对财政支出结构的碳减排效应存在调节作用,以经济和人口衡量的城镇化进程强化了财政支出结构对碳排放的抑制效果,以社会和生态衡量的城镇化削弱了财政支出结构的碳减排效应。

关键词: 财政支出规模, 财政支出结构, 碳减排效应, 新型城镇化