Abstract: Innovation is considered the key to solving the challenges caused by the increasing level of environmental regulation and uncertainty faced by industrial enterprises in China. This article aims to examine the impact of macro policies and external environmental changes on industrial enterprises' innovation. Firstly, environmental regulation and industrial enterprises' innovation exhibit a “U-shaped” relationship in the long term while uncertainty increases the difficulty of achieving the effect transformation from restriction to motivation. Secondly, due to the incomplete enforcement of environmental regulations which is induced by greater fiscal pressure and lower information transparency, the impact of the interaction between environmental regulations and uncertainty shows regional heterogeneity.

Key words: Environmental Regulation, Uncertainty, Innovation of Industrial Enterprises, Panel Poisson Model, Incomplete Enforcement

摘要： 环境规制水平提升与不确定性程度加强是我国工业企业面临的现实压力,创新被认为是破解当前困局和难题的关键。本文聚焦宏观政策及外部环境变迁对微观企业的影响,以压力向动力的转化为视角,探索增强工业企业创新韧性的可行性路径。研究发现:首先,环境规制与工业企业创新间呈现“U”型关系。环境规制对工业企业创新的影响需跨越制约作用拐点后,才能迎来压力向动力的转化,但不确定性增加了实现这种效应转化的难度,使得压力向动力的转化趋向延缓。其次,由于环境规制的非完全执行,环境规制与不确定性二者的综合影响具有区域异质性。较大的财政压力和较低的信息透明度为环境规制的非完全执行提供了动机和条件,使得环境规制对工业企业创新的影响更难跨越拐点。

关键词: 环境规制, 不确定性, 工业企业创新, 面板泊松模型, 非完全执行