Abstract: This paper takes the adjustment of industries encouraged by the central “Five-Year Plan” policies as a policy shock, and constructs a causal identification strategy based on the residual method to examine the innovation incentive effect of industrial policies by employing the PSM-DID approach. The study finds that the industrial policies mainly promote substantial corporate innovation, focusing on efficiency improvements in innovation quantity and value-added enhancements in innovation quality. Not only do they influence innovation decisions by drawing upon corporate prior innovative experiences, but also they exert spillover effects on customers' innovation along the vertical supply chain, showing heterogeneity across multiple dimensions. Mechanism analysis reveals that the signal transmission effect of financial markets and the agglomeration effect of talents are two important channels. The conclusion of this paper implies that industrial policies not only enhance and add value to corporate innovation but also facilitate the integrated empowerment of innovation by aligning capital chains with talent chains and promoting the deep integration of supply chains with innovation chains. These findings provide an objective and accurate assessment of the stimulating effects of industrial policies on innovation and delve into the synergistic effects of innovation, industry, capital, and talent chains, offering significant policy implications for adjusting industrial policies and achieving policy synergy in China.

Key words: Industrial Policy, Corporate Innovation, Signal Transmission Effect, Talent Agglomeration Effect

摘要： 本文以“五年规划”文件对鼓励行业的调整为政策冲击,构建基于残差法衡量产业政策调整的因果识别策略,采用PSM-DID方法考察产业政策的创新激励效应。研究显示,产业政策主要促进企业的实质性创新,集中于创新数量上的提效和创新质量上的增值,不但通过企业事前创新经验影响其创新决策,而且沿着纵向供应链对客户创新产生溢出效应,并在多个维度呈现异质性表现,而金融市场的信号传递效应和人才集聚效应是两条重要渠道。这一结论意味着产业政策实现企业创新的“提效增值”,打通资金链与人才链协同赋能创新的通道,推动供应链与创新链的深度融合。上述发现客观准确地评估产业政策的创新激励效应,深入探讨创新链、产业链、资金链、人才链的联动效应,对我国产业政策调整及实现政策联动具有重要的启示价值。

关键词: 产业政策, 企业创新, 信号传递效应, 人才集聚效应