Abstract: This paper systematically elucidates the paradigm shift from “macro-control” to “macroeconomic governance” and its theoretical implications. It analyzes six complex characteristics of macroeconomic operations in the new development stage, such as “weak balance”, and reveals the limitations of the traditional Keynesian policy framework under new circumstances. The study constructs an analytical framework for a macroeconomic governance system comprising four pillars: a modern central banking system, unconventional policy tools, coordination of diverse policy instruments, and macroeconomic expectation management. Finally, in alignment with the strategic deployment of the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on improving the macroeconomic governance system, it proposes a practical pathway guided by national strategic planning. This includes deepening reforms in the fiscal, tax, and financial systems, strengthening policy consistency evaluation, and enhancing expectation management. The aim is to provide theoretical direction and policy references for building a macroeconomic governance system with Chinese characteristics that meets the demands of the new development stage.

Key words: New Development Stage, Macroeconomic Governance, Diverse Policy Tools, Policy Coordination, Expectation Management

摘要： 本文系统阐述从“宏观调控”到“宏观经济治理”的范式转变及其理论内涵,剖析新发展阶段宏观经济运行的“弱平衡”等六大复杂性特征,揭示传统凯恩斯主义政策框架在新形势下的局限性,形成一个包含现代化中央银行制度、超越常规的政策工具、多元政策工具协同及宏观经济预期管理等四大支柱的宏观经济治理体系分析框架。最后,结合党的二十届四中全会关于健全宏观经济治理体系的战略部署,提出以国家战略规划为导向、深化财税金融体制改革、强化政策一致性评估和预期管理的实践路径,旨在为构建中国特色、顺应新发展阶段要求的宏观经济治理体系提供理论方向和政策参考。

关键词: 新发展阶段, 宏观经济治理, 多元政策工具, 政策协同, 预期管理