Abstract: Based on monthly time series data from Jan 2001 to Aug 2010, this paper makes empirical research on the effect of china’s coal mine safety endogenous regulatory with linear VAR model and nonlinear STAR model. The result of VAR model shows that the increase of coal mine safety regulations level, which caused by occurrence of accidents will lead to raising the level of the safety regulations ex post inevitably, and if there is the absence of other external influences, such shocks caused by the level of safety regulations will be maintained longer period, which shows that the accident occurred after the coal mine safety regulation system have ability of self-compensation. The result of nonlinear STAR model shows that coal mine safety regulations can be roughly divided into three operating status, that is lower status, which is less than2.18, and middle status, which is greater than 2.18 and less than 3.30, and higher status, which is more than 3.30. More importantly, only in middle status, coal mine safety regulation’s effective, suggesting that even if the absence of independence, the coal mine safety regulation can be still valid in a particular case.

摘要： 本文使用2001年1月至2010年8月间的月度数据，对我国煤矿安全规制效果分别采用线性VAR模型与非线性STAR模型进行了实证分析。VAR模型研究显示，前期发生事故所导致的煤矿安全规制水平增加必然会导致后期安全规制水平的提高，而在没有其他外力影响的情况下，这种冲击所造成的安全规制水平提高将会维持较长的一段，这表明事故发生之后，煤矿安全规制体系能够进行自我弥补；而非线性STAR模型研究表明，煤矿安全规制大致可以划分出三个运行状态，即小于2.18的低规制水平状态，大于2.18且小于3.30的正常状态以及大于3.30的高规制水平状态。更为重要的是，仅在处于正常状态时，煤矿安全规制是有效的，这表明即使不满足规制独立性这一前提条件，煤矿安全规制在特定情况下，仍然是有效的。