Abstract: Sudden stops are important risk faced by emerging market economics through their process of financial openness. This article utilize an unbalanced sample data of 23 emerging market economics from 1980 to 2012 to investigate the inducing factors of sudden stops, assess the sudden stops risk, and identify risk origins through panel data probit model. We find that these factors significantly affect the probability of sudden stops such as GDP growth rate, inflation rate, current account, financial openness, interest rate spreads, currency mismatch and risk contagion, etc. China's sudden stop risk is small in recent years, but there exists important risk sources. Thus, we propose some policy recommendations about guarding against sudden stops in China.

摘要： 国际资本流动突然中断是新兴市场国家金融开放进程中面临的重要风险。基于1980-2012年23个新兴市场国家的非平衡面板数据，在运用面板Probit模型考察国际资本流动突然中断驱动因素的基础上，评估我国资本流动突然中断风险，识别风险来源，结果发现：GDP增长率、通胀率、经常账户、金融开放、国内外利差、货币错配及风险传染等因素显著影响突然中断的发生概率；近年我国国际资本流动突然中断风险较小，但仍存在重要风险来源。由此，提出我国防范国际资本流动突然中断的政策建议。