Abstract: National fiscal revenue growth appears decrease in 2012. At the same time, the hope of residents on improve people′s livelihood and government attaches great importance to the people′s livelihood indicate that rigidity enhanced fiscal expenditure growth. How to resolve this contradiction become the top priority of the government work. We construct a CGE model of China to investigate the effect of government investment expansion and structure adjustment on macro-economy and resident welfare. The results indicate that expansionary government investment has positive effect on macro-economy in the short term. However, the effects are very bad in the long term. On the contrary, the investment structure adjustment has good effect on economy and resident welfare in the long term. Either government investment expansion or structure adjustment, the investment on agriculture, public management and social organization, education are the optimal investment sector. Followed by are manufacture of foods and tobacco, Health and Social Security. Real estate, scrap and waste are the worst investment sector. Therefore, the original structural imbalances will be more serious if we simply expand the level of public investment. How to scientific and rational adjust the scale of investment and optimize the structure is the key.

摘要： 2012年全国财政收入增幅回落，政府收入增长放缓，与此同时，居民对民生改善的期盼，政府对民生的高度重视，都预示着财政支出增长的刚性增强，如何解决这一矛盾成为政府工作的当务之急。在此背景下，本文构建了一个中国可计算一般均衡模型，考察了政府投资扩张与结构优化调整对宏观经济和居民福利的影响。研究发现：政府投资扩张在短期内能有效刺激经济，但长期效果较差，还会损害居民福利；相反，政府投资的结构性优化调整则能在长期内有效促进经济增长和改善居民福利；无论是政府投资扩张还是结构性优化调整，用于农林牧渔业、公共管理和社会组织、教育的投资均为最优，其次是食品制造及烟草加工业、卫生社会保障业，而房地产业和废品废料业的投资效果最差。因此，若只是简单地扩大政府公共投资水平，原有的结构性失衡问题将会更加严重，国家财政也难以支持，如何科学合理地调整投资规模，并进行结构优化才是关键。