Abstract: Based on an analytical framework to build a sustainable model of local government debt, data on 1997-2012 are used to estimate the optimal size and actual size of local government debt on the sample area in 2012. It is found that the current local government debt are sustainable; The eastern is higher than the western about the actual size of government debt, this feature of the optimal size is not obvious; debt overdue ratio shows the eastern is higher than the Western, but the sample region is still in the safe area value. Local government debt financing still has some space, but the government need to strengthen supervision.

摘要： 本文基于一个分析框架，构建地方政府性债务可持续模型，利用1997-2102年数据，估算样本区域2012年地方政府性债务的最优规模与实际规模。结果发现，目前地方政府性债务均具有可持续性；政府性债务实际规模呈现“东高西低”的特征，最优规模不具有这种特征；债务逾期率则呈现“西高东低”的特征，但样本区域仍处于安全值内。地方政府性债务融资仍具有一定空间，但须加强监管。