Abstract: The analysis of the return to capital in different periods in real-estate perspective shows that the investment of real estate is inefficient which lower the return on capital investment. The high profits of real estate derive from the highly leveraged funds. The adverse effects caused by overdevelopment of the real estate are over time more and more obvious especially after 2003. The rising of return to capital except for real-estate industry and the high return to real-estate industry explain vast international capitals pouring into China. The real estate investment and return on capital relationship test show that stimulating effect of real-estate investment on the economy exists only in the year, and the greater volatility of long-term effects exists. In addition, the return to provincial capitals shows less convergence compared with that including real-estate industry, which means the overdevelopment of real-estate industry weakens the degree of the optimal allocation of resources, and hinders sustainable economic development.

摘要： 从房地产视角对中国不同时期的资本回报率分析，结果显示，房地产业确实拉低了整体资本回报率，投资效率不高，房地产业的暴利源于资金运作的高杠杆性。2003年之后，随时间推移房地产业过度发展带来的不利影响表现得愈加明显。剔除房地产业后的资本回报率上升，以及房地产业的高回报为国际资本流入提供了注解。通过对房地产业投资和资本回报率关系的检验，发现房地产业投资对经济的拉动作用主要表现在年度贡献，长期内存在较大的波动效应。同时，资本回报率的省际趋同效应减弱，透视出房地产过度发展有碍于资源的优化配置，长期内不利于经济的可持续性发展。