Abstract: This paper attempts to clarify and analyze six risk factors of deciding the most optimum margin financing in public facilitates, taking the data of 1325 public facilitates of 869 financing platforms among 36 regional governments from 2011 to 2013 by stepwise logistic regression analysis to figure out the extend of influence of risk factors upon the most optimum marginal financing of public facilitates. The study shows that: the incrementality of culture, government’ financing risk and the growth of bargaining capacity of the government in cost default would cause the public facilitate financing tend to be socially financing; increasing in credit supply to capital market cause it tend to be bank debt financing, the influence upon which are sequenced from intense to moderate one: bargaining capacity of the government in cost default, credit supply, and the incrementality of culture, government’ financing risk.

摘要： 梳理并分析了公共文化设施边际融资的影响因素，以我国2011-2013年869家地方融资平台1325个公共文化设施的数据为样本，采用逐步回归的logistic方法做面板数据分析，探讨公共文化设施边际融资的最优选择。研究表明：文化的增长性、政府融资风险、资金清算时政府价格谈判能力的增加会使公共文化设施倾向于选择社会资本融资；信贷供给的增加使其倾向于选择债务融资，影响程度的大小顺序为：政府的价格谈判能力、信贷供给、文化的增长性以及政府融资风险。