Abstract: Long-term model of asset allocation based on life cycle theory is an important framework of studying the relationship between social insurance and household asset allocation. But some weak points were mentioned in this paper that the influence of social insurance isn’t shown up completely and the model is short of the direct support from the household data. In this paper one single-period model was established including social insurance, future expectation and we got rich conclusions through a questionnaire survey. The statistical results show that most of those questioned have expectation for future payment and it will affect their decisions of asset allocation; the results also show that the length of time those questioned expect in obeys a Poisson distribution, and the precautionary saving has some statistical characteristics; those questioned will be affected by some factors on their expectation and decisions about precautionary saving. Meanwhile, the statistical results show many differences between those questioned who has household registration in Shanghai and other provinces. The main innovation of this paper is building a long-term model of asset allocation which shows the whole influence of social insurance, at the same time providing the support based on the actual household data through the questionnaire and showing the factors which affect the household decisions about asset allocation

摘要： 基于生命周期理论的长期资产配置模型是研究社会保障与居民家庭资产配置之间关系的重要框架，本文指出相关研究存在社会保障影响未完整体现、缺少居民家庭调查数据的直接支持等薄弱环节。因此，本文构建了引入社会保障、未来预期的单期模型，并进行问卷调查和统计分析，得到了丰富的结论。统计显示，显著多数的受访者对未来支出会有预期，并明显影响其资产配置决策；受访者预期未来支出的时间长度满足泊松分布，其预防性储蓄有一定的统计特征；受访者的未来预期和预防性储蓄决策受到多方面因素影响，且上海和其他地区户籍的受访者在若干相关性上存在明显差异。本文的主要创新之处在于构建了反映社会保障整体影响的长期资产配置模型，同时通过问卷调查提供了来自居民家庭实际数据的支持，揭示了影响其资产决策的多方面因素。