Abstract: This paper builds econometric model which contains agricultural technology process, new-urbanization and transference of redundant rural labor force, and makes empirical test based on “push-pull theory” by using 1998-2012 annual inter-provincial dynamic panel data. National study shows the “push” from agricultural technology process and the “pull” from new-urbanization has a significant role for the promotion of rural surplus labor to urban non-agricultural industries. Sub-regional study shows that the “push” from agricultural technology process in descending order is western, eastern and central, and the “pull” from new-urbanization in descending order is central, western and eastern. In addition, the income gap between urban and rural has a significant positive role in promoting rural surplus labor transfer in the eastern but nothing influence in the other areas. The resistance of household factor is becoming weaker.

摘要： 本文以“推拉理论”为基础，构建包含农业技术进步、新型城镇化和农村剩余劳动力转移在内的计量模型，利用1998-2012年省际动态面板数据进行实证检验。全国研究表明，农业技术进步形成的“推力”和新型城镇化形成的“拉力”对于促进农村剩余劳动力向城镇非农产业转移有显著作用。分区域研究表明，农业技术进步的“推力”由大到小依次为西部、东部和中部，而城镇化的“拉力”由大到小依次为中部、西部和东部。另外，城乡收入差距对东部农村剩余劳动力转移有显著正向促进作用，而中西部则无影响。户籍因素对农村剩余劳动力转移的阻力作用越来越弱。