关键词: 公私合作项目, 提前终止, 致因因素, 结构方程模型

Abstract: This article studies the critical factors for early-termination of PPP projects and analyzes the causal relationship among them.It first identifies the influencing factors causing early-termination of PPP projects (Abbreviated to "PET"), and then divide them into the basic factors and the stage-performance factors. It names the basic factors as the premise variables, the stage-performance factors as the intermediate variables, and nominates the two factors of relationship-termination and entity-termination as the consequence variables. It establishes a structural equation model, in which the premise variables generate the consequence variables via affecting the intermediate variables. Questionnaire is used for data collecting in this empirical study.SEM method is applied to test and modify the model. By calculating the effect of each variable, this research gains the following results: The "organization" risk factors and the "system" risk factors have the greatest impact on the relationship-termination, while the "Market" risk factors and the "environment" risk factors have the greatest impact on the entity-abandonment. Compared to the "operation phase", entity-abandonment is more likely to occur during the "construction phase" while relationship-termination is more likely to happen during the "operation phase". As the relationship-termination does not usually lead to delivery—while entity-abandonment usually does, it is important to realize that the dimensions of project failure caused by entity-abandonment are even more critical than those caused by relationship-termination.

Key words: Public-Private Partnership (PPP), Early-Termination, Causing Factors, Structural Equation Model