房产税调控政策对商品房价的影响研究——基于合成控制法的分析

财经论丛 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 23-36.

房产税调控政策对商品房价的影响研究——基于合成控制法的分析

刘凤娟¹, 司言武²

1.无锡环境科学与工程研究中心,江苏无锡 214153;
2.浙江财经大学财政税务学院,浙江杭州 310018

收稿日期:2017-09-04 出版日期:2018-05-10 发布日期:2018-05-08
作者简介:刘凤娟(1967-),女, 河北唐山人,无锡环境科学与工程研究中心副教授,博士;司言武(1973-), 男, 安徽肥东人,浙江财经大学财政税务学院教授,博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71473216);2017年江苏高校“青蓝工程”优秀教学团队(苏教师(2017)15号);江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金立项课题(2017SJB0888);第三期江苏省职业教育教学改革研究课题(ZCZ61)

Research on the Effects of Property Tax and Regulatory Policy on the Commercial Housing Prices ——An Analysis Based on the Synthetic Control Methods

LIU Fengjuan¹, SI Yanwu²

1.Wuxi Environmental Science and Engineering Research Center, Wuxi 214153, China;
2. School of Finance and Taxation, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China

Received:2017-09-04 Online:2018-05-10 Published:2018-05-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文基于合成控制法,从反事实的角度,对我国32个城市的2009年4月以来的与房价相关的月度面板数据,结合上海重庆试点城市运用房产税调控政策的效果及敏感度问题进行研究。研究发现:房产税调控政策对不同区域的房价影响不同,如政策对上海市的房价影响效果较明显,上海对政策的敏感度高,但政策过后其房价上升更快;政策对重庆市的房价影响效果不明显,重庆市对政策的敏感度低。因此,提出建议:政策应因地制宜;对关系国计民生的土地及现有住房进行管控,降低存量房;实施保障房建设及住房申请制间接影响房价;将智慧养老与社区养老相结合,提高住房的利用率。

关键词: 房产税, 宏观政策, 房价, 合成控制法

Abstract: Based on the synthetic control methods and the monthly panel data related to the commercial housing prices from 32 cities from April 2009 to December 2014, this paper analyzes the effects and the sensitivity of property tax and regulatory policy in pilot cities like Shanghai and Chongqing from the perspective of counterfactuals. The results show that the effect of policies varies from region to region. Shanghai has higher sensitivity to property tax and regulation policy and the effects of policies are obvious there. But the price rebound of its commercial housing is faster and more powerful after the policies have been adopted for some time. However, Chongqing has lower sensitivity and the property tax and regulatory policies do not have significant effects there . Therefore, this paper puts forwards the following suggestions: the central government should take local conditions different cities into consideration when issuing new policies; the local governments should effectively manage and control the land, the present housing and reduce housing stocks; the government should implement the affordable housing construction and housing application system; and the government should develop the community old-age care associated with intelligent old-age care to improve housing utilization.

Key words: Property Tax, Macroscopical Policy, The Commercial Housing Price, Synthetic Control Methods

中图分类号:

刘凤娟, 司言武. 房产税调控政策对商品房价的影响研究——基于合成控制法的分析[J]. 财经论丛, 2018, 34(5): 23-36.

LIU Fengjuan, SI Yanwu. Research on the Effects of Property Tax and Regulatory Policy on the Commercial Housing Prices ——An Analysis Based on the Synthetic Control Methods[J]. , 2018, 34(5): 23-36.

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