关键词: 宏观杠杆率, 资本产出比, 货币政策

Abstract: Since the 2008 financial crisis, China's macro leverage has risen rapidly. Many scholars think that high leverage may increase the financial risk, and even lead to financial crisis. Based on the national balance sheet theory,this paper introduces financial factors into the Solow growth model to study the evolution path of the macro leverage and the influence of the monetary policy on the macro leverage. We find that a country's macro leverage has its own time trend, and the monetary policy will reverse the macro leverage from its trend. This suggests that China should not set atarget macro leverage and should not deleverage by atight monetary policy.

Key words: Macro Leverage, Capital-output Ratio, Monetary Policy