关键词: 房产税改革, 宏观经济效应, 政策组合, DSGE模型

Abstract: Under the premise of “promoting reform” and “steadying growth”, how to reduce the negative impact of the property tax reform on the macro economy has become a major problem of further reform. This paper first uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to simulate and analyze the impact of the shock formed by the property tax reform on macroeconomic fluctuation, and then, from the perspective of policy combination, searches for appropriate solutions to hedge against the negative impact of the shock. The results show that the property tax reform shock will make macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment and output fluctuate downward and the higher the tax rate, the greater the impact and the longer the duration. Through further simulation analysis of the policy combination, we find that when the property tax reform matches the loose interest rate policy, the negative impact of the property tax reform on macroeconomic fluctuations will be effectively hedged. It shows that the proper combination of policies can build a favorable external environment for the property tax reform.

Key words: Property Tax Reform, Macroeconomic Effects, Policy Combination, DSGE Model