关键词: 地方政府债务, 债务风险度量, 风险能量, 风险预测, 系统动力学

Abstract: Based on the theory of risk energy release, this paper constructs a system dynamic model of local government debt risk assessment, and uses the grey prediction model to predict the risk. The changing trend of local government debt risk is simulated by the case simulation, and the risk sensitivity factors are tested. The empirical results show that the tax revenue and the fiscal expenditure are the most sensitive factors, followed by the fixed assets investment and the population factors, while the sensitivity of the land income varies from region to region, and interest rates are insensitive factors. Furthermore, it puts forward corresponding suggestions from the aspects of the fiscal and the taxation system reform, controlling the non-rigid fiscal expenditures, improving the population mobility system and the land income policy. This paper clarifies the multiple feedback structure of the local government debt risk system from a dynamic perspective, and reveal the impact mechanism of the sensitive factors of the local government debt risk system, which provides strong support for the local government to control the debt risk.

Key words: Local Government Debt, Debt Risk Measurement, Risk Energy, Risk Forecasting, System Dynamics