关键词: 农村人口转移, 城乡收入差距, 人口净流出率, 区域异质性

Abstract:

Classical economic theory believes that in the process of labor shifting from the agricultural sector with low production efficiency to the non-agricultural sector and urban areas, the urban-rural income gap is expected to narrow, thus realizing the transformation of the dual economy. Economists of China tend to believe that with the removal of institutional barriers to migration, the longstanding income gaps can eventually be reduced through adequate labor mobility across regions and sectors. Scholars at home and abroad hold different views on the impact of the rural population transfer on the urban-rural income gap. Some believe that population mobility has widened the income gap between urban and rural areas, while others argue that the rural population transfer has promoted the convergence of the urban-rural income gap. Empirical studies of whether the rural population transfer expands or narrows the urban-rural income gap also have different focuses. However, the rural population and the labor transfer in China present unique characteristics, that is, younger, masculine, and higher educational levels. In addition, due to the great differences in the level of economic development in different regions, the impact of different scales of the rural population transfer on income gaps is also different. Therefore, the impact of the rural population transfer on the urban-rural income gap cannot be summarized and explained by a single experience in the past.

The main research contents of this paper are as follows: (1) In terms of data processing, it is different from the previous literature that equates the rate of change in rural population with the rate of urbanization. The data on rural household registration and permanent population of prefecture-level cities across the country are summarized, and finally the index of the rural population outflow rate of 313 prefecture-level cities from 2005 to 2014 is sorted out. The data shows that the rural population’s net outflow rate has been on the rise year after year, that is, the rural population’s loss is increasing; and the rural net outflow rate shows a certain spatial difference. The loss of China’s rural population is accompanied by the transfer of the agricultural labor, and this process is not only a relative or absolute reduction in the number of labor inputs in the agricultural production, but also a decline in the quality of the untransferred labor. In addition, the transfer of the rural population has also increased the income level of farmers. In particular, the money and goods remitted by migrants to their place of origin may have an important impact on the distribution of the family income and welfare. (2) This article expounds the impact mechanism of the rural population transfer on the urban-rural income gap from four aspects: the human capital effect, the scale economy effect, the conditional bottleneck effect and the capital return effect. (3) In terms of empirical tests, this study uses prefecture-level city panel data to perform regression, endogenous tests and robustness analysis is conducted as well. The regression results are consistent with the basic empirical results. This paper also carries out a regional analysis of heterogeneity based on the population size and the geographic location of prefecture-level cities.

The empirical results of this article show that the rural population transfer has a convergence effect on the urban-rural income gap. Basic regression, endogenousness test, and robustness test all support this conclusion, which is consistent with the classic dual economic theory. Regional heterogeneity has an impact on the role of the rural population transfer. Through the analysis of the size of the population and the distance from the central city, it can be seen that the rural population transfer in areas with a large population and a medium distance from the central city is more conducive to the convergence of the urban-rural income gap.

Key words: Rural Population Transfer, Urban-rural Income Gap, Net Outflow Rate of Rural Population, Regional Heterogeneity