“一带一路”增加值贸易网络演变及其影响因素

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文基于UNCTAD-Eora增加值贸易数据,采用SNA法和QAP法考察2003—2018年沿线国家增加值贸易网络演变特征及其影响因素。研究结果表明,沿线国家增加值贸易网络规模不断扩大、联系日趋紧密、融合度逐渐加深,已形成以中国、俄罗斯、新加坡和印度为中心的“多极化”分布格局和联结疏密差异明显但结构相对稳定的五大社团凝聚子群;各国的网络地位分布并非匀质,中国、俄罗斯和印度居于“桥梁”和枢纽地位;各国地理相邻、共同语言、直接投资关系和产业结构差异可解释36%的贸易网络演变,这四者的积极作用具有阶段性的差异。据此,我国应从全局考量各国利益及关切,发挥中心联结作用,以投资促进贸易,推动沿线国家深度包容性融合。

关键词: 一带一路, 增加值贸易, 社会网络分析, QAP法

Abstract: This paper examine the evolution characteristics of value-added trade networks of the countries along the route from 2003—2018 and their influencing factors. The results show that the value-added trade network of B&R has been expanding in scale, tending to be more closely linked, and gradually deepening in integration, and has formed a “multipolar” distribution pattern centered on China, Russia, Singapore and India and five cohesive subgroups of associations with obvious differences in the degree of linkage but relatively stable structures; The distribution of the network status of each country is not homogeneous with China, Russia and India in the “bridge” and hub positions; Geographical proximity, common language, FDI differences and industrial structure differences among countries explain 36% of the evolution of trade networks, and the influence of the four factors varies significantly in different stages. This paper argues that China should consider the interests and concerns of B&R from a global perspective, play a central linkage role, promote trade with investment, and deep and inclusive integration along the route.

Key words: Belt and Road, ValueAdded Trade, Social Network Analysis, QAP Method

中图分类号:

F740

葛纯宝, 于津平, 刘亚攀. “一带一路”增加值贸易网络演变及其影响因素[J]. 财经论丛, 2022, 38(7): 15-24.

GE Chunbao, YU Jinping, LIU Yapan. The Evolution of Value Added Trade Networks along the “Belt and Road”and Its Influencing Factors[J]. Collected Essays on Finance and Economics, 2022, 38(7): 15-24.

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