Abstract: This paper makes a stationary VAR model for the amount of loans and the real GDP series in China, and an AR model with a trend term and a constant term for the contribution series, which measures the contribution of the loans to the real GDP in China. The result of the first model shows a significant interaction between the increase rates of loans and the real GDP, and the second shows that the linear relationship between loans and the real GDP has a significant downward trend and a long memory property，both of which mean that, in the short run, increasing loans is effective on the real economic growth, while in the long run, it induces the inflation additionally. These conclusions give a good support on the effectiveness of changing loans as a monetary policy tool, and also an empirical proof on testing the currency-neutral in China indirectly.