财经论丛 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 48-57.

• 金融与投资 • 上一篇    下一篇

货币洪流中演化的中国股价波动复杂度耦合关系——基于2000至2014年数据的经验证据

温博慧   

  1. 天津财经大学经济学院金融系
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-04 修回日期:2015-07-30 出版日期:2015-10-10 发布日期:2015-09-28
  • 通讯作者: 温博慧
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金青年项目;天津财经大学优秀青年学者培育计划

Coupling Relationship between China’s Monetization and the Complexity of stock price in Period of 2000 to 2014

  • Received:2014-11-04 Revised:2015-07-30 Online:2015-10-10 Published:2015-09-28

摘要: 中国货币化程度与股价波动复杂度具有动态耦合关系,其已成为具有新生研究价值的重要问题。本文一方面对高频信息形成月度转化,构造综合指标对中国股价波动复杂度进行测算;另一方面筛选并剔除影响时间序列复杂度的内部结构性因素,基于耦合模型从协调性与发展角度深入探讨并梳理了中国近10余年货币化程度与股价波动复杂度间耦合关系的演化路径。研究发现:所构建的股价波动复杂度综合测算指标能够对既有测算方法形成较好的平滑与融合;中国货币化程度变迁与股价波动复杂度演化的耦合关系主要经历了由濒临衰退到特殊时期的趋势反转,再到危机冲击后的中级协调发展的动态演化路径。从适宜性跃迁的角度看,目前二者发展度水平还存在较大提升空间,可以采取先提升发展度,继而提升协调度的旋进发展思路。

Abstract: The dynamic coupling relationship between China’s monetization and the complexity of stock price has become an important issue which is worth studying. In this paper, we turn high-frequency information of stock index into monthly data by using sliding window technology, then we construct systematic indicator to measure the complexity of stock price while improving existing measurements; and after filtering the internal structural factors of time series, we discuss and comb the evolution path of coupling relationship between China’s monetization and the complexity of stock price in recent 10 years based on empirical test of the coupling model. The results show that the indicator we constructed is comprehensive and reliable, which can smooth and integrate the results of the existing measure methods. It also shows that the coupling relationship mainly experienced the reversal of special period from recession and intermediate coordinated development after the crisis. From the point of suitability transition view, there is a still more space to improve the degree of development. We can improve the degree of development and then enhance the coordination.

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