Abstract: This paper empirically studies the supply response for garlic in China with the Nerlove model by using dynamic panel GMM way. The study is based on the survey in the Shandong Province Jinxiang County. It is concluded that, the short-term and long-term flexibility of supply for garlic is low which means that peasants are slow in response to garlic price signal; yields of early years have the positive impact on garlic supply followed, there is time-lag when peasants making production decisions; production inputs have significant positive impact on garlic yield production; and climatic disaster has the negative impact on garlic output. Compared to farmers with higher education background, the production adjustment influenced by price relatively affects more on farmers with lower education background; compared with farmers with larger plant area, the production adjustment influenced by garlic price fluctuation has greater impact on farmers with relatice small plant area.

摘要： 供给反应是了解价格杠杆发挥作用机制的基础，来自山东省金乡县实际调查的微观面板数据显示：大蒜供给的长短期价格弹性均偏低，蒜农对大蒜价格的变化反应较为迟钝；蒜农的生产决策受过去决策的影响较大，具有一定的滞后性；加大大蒜生产过程中各种物质和人工的投入能够增加大蒜的产量；气候灾害则对大蒜产量有着显著的负向影响；受教育程度高的农户，其生产调整受上期价格的影响相对小于受教育程度低的农户；种植面积大的农户其生产调整受大蒜价格的影响相对小种植面积小的农户。