Abstract: In this paper, we have done empirical analysis to rural residential consumption effects of expenditure for social security, by constructing two dynamic models using the time series of national data from 1978 to 2011 and the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2011. The results show that the expenditure for social security has improved the rural residential consumption in the long run, but the effects of are different in three parts of China.

摘要： 本文分别从全国和区域两个层面对我国农村社保支出与农村居民消费的关系进行实证检验。文章首先选取1978-2011年的时间序列数据，用可变参数状态空间模型分析社会保障制度变迁对我国农村居民消费的总体影响，接下来选取1995-2011年的省际数据，用动态面板模型分析社保支出对农村居民消费的区域效应。研究表明，我国的农村社会保障制度处于不断调整的动态平衡之中，社会保障支出总体上对农村居民消费起到了挤入作用，但对消费的拉动作用存在着明显的区域性差异。