Abstract: In recent years, the transformation from business tax to VAT is the most important tax system reform . Therefore, conducting research on the dynamic effects of the industry tax burden of the VAT reform will undoubtedly exert important theoretical value and practical significance. This article aimed to research the dynamic change of industry tax burden after the tax system reform by constructing a CGE model. The results showed that, in the short term, although government balance the tax burden of industry which transformation from business tax to VAT by designing the tax rate, the tax burden of some industries still rise in the long run.

摘要： “营改增”是我国近年来最重要的税制改革，研究揭示营改增对行业税负的动态影响具有重要的现实意义。本文通过构建中国税收的CGE模型分析营改增前后我国各行业两税税负的动态变化，发现即使在短期内通过税率设计等方式使得扩围行业税负平衡，在长期中部分行业仍然会出现税负上升的现象。