Abstract: Based on the non-competitive (import) constant price input-output tables, this paper estimates the influence of the Sino-Indian trade on China’s carbon emissions, and used the structural decomposition method to research the driving factors that affected the Sino-Indian embodied carbon emissions. Results are to some degree different from the findings of the embodied pollution emissions between China and developed countries, on one hand, in the Sino-Indian trade, China is in the “pollution surplus” status, but China's net trade carbon content didn’t growth rapidly, China’s environmental terms of trade didn’t deteriorate, but continue to improve; on the other hand, the main reason that lead to our continued pollution surplus to India is the trade surplus of China to India rather than China’s technology level and the trade commodity structures. Therefore, in order to reduce our country’s pollution emissions during foreign Trade with developing countries, China should make a choice between “trade surplus” with “pollution deficit”.

摘要： 本文基于中印两国1995—2005年的（进口）非竞争型可比价格投入产出表，测算与分析了中印贸易对我国碳排放的影响，并利用结构分解分解法研究了影响中印隐含碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明：南南贸易与南北贸易对中国的环境影响效应是不同的，一方面，尽管在中印贸易中，中国处于“污染顺差”地位，但中国对印度的净贸易含碳量并未快速增长，中国对印度的“环境贸易条件”也并非呈现恶化趋势，而是不断改善；另一方面，导致我国对印度持续污染顺差的主要原因在于我国对印的贸易顺差，而非我国的技术水平与进出口商品结构等因素。因此，为降低与发展中国家对外贸易产生的污染排放，中国需要在“贸易顺差”与“污染逆差”中进行取舍。