Abstract: according to the analysis of the extension of the Barro model, the government debt ratio can be used as an important explanatory variable of economic growth. Based on the 2009-2013 panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China, by using SYS-GMM method to test and measure, the results showed that there is a U-shaped relation between our local government debt and economic growth. And that the quantitative relationship between the debt ratio and the growth of regional economy shows that in the province of government which debt rate is higher promoting regional economy are more obvious, but the long-term relationship between the two remains to be seen. To prevent the government's debt risk, we should focus on the control of the overall national debt scale, rather than to the various provinces and cities to develop a unified government debt “red line”.

摘要： 根据对Barro模型的拓展分析，政府负债率可以作为经济增长的一个重要解释变量。通过对我国30个省市2009-2013年的面板数据，采用SYS-GMM方法进行计量检验，结果显示我国地方政府性债务与区域经济增长之间存在U型关系。负债率与区域经济增长之间的这种数量关系表明，在负债率较高的省份政府债务对区域经济的促进作用比较明显，但长期二者之间的这种关系是否存在还有待观察。防范政府债务风险，应着眼于对国家总体债务规模的控制，而不是给各省市制定统一的政府债务“红线”。