Abstract: In this paper, loan loss provisions are divided into two types according to the different management motivations, that is, the discretionary component and nondiscretionary component. Based on data of China's listed Banks in 2003-2012, an empirical analysis is made about the influence of loan loss provisioning on bank lending using dynamic panel data model. We found a significant pro-cyclical behavior in the commercial bank loan provisions, as the nondiscretionary component is in a dominant position, and the mitigation effect of income smoothing motivation and signal motivation on commercial banks’ pro-cyclical is limited. So a Counter-cyclical mechanism of loan loss provisions should be established based on the expected loss model.

摘要： 本文按照不同的管理动机将贷款损失准备计提行为区分为非相机决策与相机决策两种类型，选取2003-2012年中国上市银行数据，采用动态面板数据模型实证分析了贷款损失准备计提对银行贷款的影响。结果表明，商业银行贷款拨备存在显著的顺周期性行为，其中非相机决策性贷款拨备的影响处于主导地位，收入平滑动机与信号显示动机对商业银行顺周期性的缓释作用有限，因此应基于预期损失模型建立逆周期性贷款损失拨备制度。