Abstract: This paper using 3-digit ISIC code import-export trade data on China- OECD countries and adding the manufacture trade variables in the traditional EKC model to find the evidences which China may become into pollution heaven. The results showed that: Importing high pollution products from China is at least part of the reason for the domestic environmental quality improvement for OECD countries. For the 2-digit ISIC models and 3-digit ISIC models, we find only 50% and 15% import variables are negative and significant. However some specific high pollution industries, such as industrial chemical manufacture and black fabricated metal products indicate obvious the PHH evidence.

摘要： 本文利用我国与OECD国家三位ISIC编码的进出口贸易数据，验证从中国进口高污染品是否改善了发达国家的国内环境，进而从更细分的行业层面再次寻找中国可能沦为污染天堂的证据。结果显示：OECD国家通过从中国进口高污染产品至少是其国内环境改善的一部分原因，但是将行业进行细分时，PHH命题的证据显得不怎么明显，只有50％的二位ISIC码和15％的三位ISIC码的进口贸易变量系数显著为负，然而某些具体的高污染行业，如工业化学制造业和黑色金属制品业则存在明显的PHH命题证据。