Abstract: To research the influence of the environment variables, such as regional economic growth, provincial government efficiency, and so on, to the fiscal budget deviation, the article tries to formulate three theoretical assumption, and test them with methods including the integration test, error correction model, impulse response function and the panel econometric model and so on. The results show that: there exit long-term and stable relationship among the research variables; the influence of Regional economic growth to budget deviation is most significantly, and shows a positive effect; the long-term relationship between local government efficiency and budget deviation is more stable, and local government efficiency has negative impact on the budget deviation; relationship between the fiscal budget expenditure and income divergence is weak, and the elasticity coefficient is low. To shrink the budget deviation, local government performance evaluation system should be optimized. Under the economic background of the new normal，we should decrease the GDP index weight, pay more attention to the government efficiency, strengthen budgetary expenditure autonomy, and promote the building of modern financial governance mechanisms.

摘要： 为研究地区经济增长、地方政府效率等环境变量对财政预决算偏差的影响，本文构建三个理论假设并通过面板数据协整模型、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数及面板计量模型等方法对其进行检验，结果符合预期。研究表明：各要素之间存在长期和短期稳定关系；地区经济增长对预决算偏差的影响最为显著，呈现正向扩大效应；地方政府效率与预决算偏差的长期关系更加稳定，且对预决算偏差具负向冲击力；财政预决算偏差中，支出偏离度与收入偏离度的关系微弱，弹性系数较低。在经济新常态背景下，为缩小预决算偏差，我国应优化地方政府绩效评价体系，降低GDP指标权重，重视提升地方政府效率，推进建设规范有序的现代财政治理机制。