Abstract: In this paper,we use the data of national thirty-one provinces’(autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the central government) land assignment income from year 2002 to year 2011 to research influences of local government competition and central government policy on different development stages of land finance by using cluster, principal component and SYS- GMM analysis methods, and make some policy evaluations. Through the study we find that different regions in China can be roughly classified into four stages according to land financial development situations:”post land finance stage”,”land finance vigorous stage”,”land finance relatively vigorous stage” and “land finance development stage”.Specifically, for the majority of land finance development stages,local government competition will further increase the scale of land finance,while the central government policy will effectively control land finance to continue developing,but the tax system can not fully explain the reason of land finance’s rapid development.Hence,we make recommendations to reform achievement evaluation system,implement the land finance governance policy,deepen the reform of tax system and rationally plan the use of land.

摘要： 本文利用2002年至2011年全国三十一省（自治区、直辖市）土地出让收入数据，使用聚类分析法、主成分分析法以及系统GMM分析方法，研究分税制背景下地方政府间横向竞争以及中央政府土地财政治理政策对不同区域集群的土地财政的影响，并进行政策评价。通过研究发现，从整体上我国不同区域的土地财政发展状况大致可分为四个阶段：“后土地财政阶段”、“土地财政旺盛阶段”、“土地财政较为旺盛阶段”以及“土地财政发展阶段”。具体地，对于多数土地财政发展阶段而言，地方政府横向竞争会进一步加大土地财政规模，而中央治理政策能够有效地起到控制土地财政继续发展的作用，而分税制因素并不能完全解释土地财政迅猛发展的现象。因此，提出改革政绩考核体制、贯彻土地财政治理政策、深化分税制改革、合理规划土地利用方式等政策建议。