Abstract: From the theory of embeddedness, firm’s social capital is an important resource. Based on the bank lending data of listed real estate firms, the paper finds that in addition to accounting-based and market-based variables, real estate firms’ bank-enterprise relationship, as one of the most important kinds of social capital, provides important information in explaining loan default, which helps to improve the predicting power of bank loan default risk models. The duration of bank-firm bilateral relationship, the real estate-oriented age and the state-owned background have negative effects on default risk. The role of bank-firm multilateral relationship depends on the size and structure of the network.

摘要： 嵌入性理论认为，社会资本是企业可以利用的重要资源。本文基于我国房地产上市公司信贷数据，发现银企关系作为企业一项重要的社会资本提供了财务变量和股票市场变量以外有关公司违约的重要信息，有助于提高违约风险模型的预测能力。其中银企双边关系久期、主营房地产业务时间以及公司国有背景与违约风险率显著负相关，银企关系规模的实际作用效果与关系网络的规模和结构有关。