Abstract: This paper statistically analyzed the residents energy-saving willingness and household electricity consumption of the step tariff policy, based on social surveys of eastern, western, northern Guangdong and the typically Pearl River delta cities in Guangdong. Further, by building the ARIMA model, actual monthly data of electricity consumption is used to study quantitatively the energy-saving effect of the policy implementation. Research shows that the implementation of the step tariff policy in Guangdong Province has a positive impact on improving the energy-saving willingness of residents, and has significant effect on energy conservation in the short term, but this effect would be weakened over time. Therefore, in order to design and improve relevant policies, should be from energy-saving willingness, economic incentives and other point of view to enhance the policy relevance and effectiveness.

摘要： 以广东省为例，基于粤东、粤西、粤北及珠三角典型地市的社会调查，统计分析阶梯电价政策对居民节能意愿及家庭用电的影响；同时运用广东省月度电力数据，构建ARIMA模型，定量研究政策实施的节能效果。研究表明，阶梯电价政策的实施对改善居民节能意愿有积极影响，并在短期内有明显的节能效果，但随着时间推移，节能效果有所减弱。为设计与完善相关政策，未来需要从节能意愿、经济激励等角度切入，提升政策的针对性、有效性。