Abstract:

Under the background of aging, the elderly service consumption is of great significance on expanding domestic demand and promoting the development of tertiary industry. By introducing an interaction term of aging and service consumption per GDP, this paper utilizes various static and dynamic panel data models and robustness analysis to examine the impact of aging on the development of tertiary industry through the specific channel of service consumption, also, the data it used are the Chinese Provincial Panel Data from 2003 to 2013. The results show that, aging has a negative impact on the development of tertiary industry, but the demand of service consumption caused by aging will reduce the negative mpact?significantly. Further extended analysis shows that the service consumption is an important channel in which aging influences the tertiary industry; accelerating urbanization, improving pension and other social security system, and enhancing the level of financial development are conducive to release the demand of elderly service consumption, thus contributing to the development of tertiary industry.

摘要：

老龄化背景下，老年人口引致的服务性消费对于扩大内需及促进第三产业发展均具有重要意义。本文基于2003～2013年的中国省级面板数据，通过引入老龄化与服务性消费比重的交互项，综合运用多种静态和动态面板数据模型和稳健性分析，考察老龄化通过服务性消费渠道对第三产业发展的影响。结果表明，老龄化对第三产业发展呈负向影响，但老龄化引致的服务性消费比重的提高能够显著减弱这一负向影响。扩展讨论证实，服务性消费确为老龄化影响第三产业发展的重要渠道；加快推进城镇化、完善养老等社会保障体系以及提升金融发展水平有利于释放老年人口的服务性消费需求，拉动第三产业发展。