Abstract: The government debt burden rate standard is not fixed, mainly depends on the conditions of the marginal social benefits of debt equals the marginal social costs, if cut costs or boost returns, the standard of debt burden rate will increase, on the contrary will decline. The local government debt placed on fiscal expenditure and economic growth relations theory framework. Through the empirical research of the western province of Y 106 county area, and found that different time quantum corresponding to the debt burden rate of different standards, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2009-2010 respectively 14.28%, 11.98% and 14.16%, also found that local governments competing beyond established which under the condition of the debt burden rate standard to debt, bringing greater potential risks. Therefore, currently the prevention of our local government debt risk have to pay more attention to two problems: one is according to the actual debt around marginal social costs and benefits, to establish dynamic debt burden rate standard for debt risk monitoring and early warning; the second is in solving the real and higher burden rate, we should focus on resolving the debt conversion in quantitative terms for improving debt marginal social revenue and reduce the marginal social cost of debt in quality.

摘要： 政府债务负担率标准并非固定，主要由债务边际社会成本与债务边际社会收益相等决定，如果其边际成本降低或边际收益提高，债务负担率标准将提升，相反会下降。本文将地方政府债务置于财政支出与经济增长的关系框架下，通过对西部Y省106个县域地区进行实证研究，发现不同时间段对应的债务负担率标准不同，2005-2006、2007-2008、2009-2010分别为14.28%、11.98%和14.16%，同时也发现各地地方政府在竞相超越既定债务负担率标准举债，带来较大的债务风险隐患。因此，防范我国当前地方政府债务风险需要重视两个问题：一是根据各地实际债务边际社会成本和收益，制定动态债务负担率标准，用于债务风险的监测预警；二是在解决实际债务负担率较高问题上，重点要从数量上化解债务转化为从质量上提高债务边际社会收益和降低债务边际社会成本。