Abstract: During preparations for the Olympic Games, Beijing issued a series of environmental policy, increased environmental governance. By using synthetic control method which appeared in comparative case study recently, we estimated the impact of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games on Beijing's air quality in this paper. The results showed that Beijing's air quality has been significantly improved after 2008; average annual air pollution days reduced 25 days, and the result is significantly on the level of 3.2%. But after 2010, the effects of environmental policy on Beijing air quality disappeared gradually. Furthermore, considering winter is the most polluted season of Beijing, this paper further examines the impact of the Olympic Games on the air quality in winter, we find that after the Olympics, the improvement of air quality in Beijing mainly occurred in other seasons, winter air quality did not significantly improved. Finally, for the perspective of China’s long-term economic growth pattern, local official evaluation mode and China’s local environmental politics, this paper analysis the reason why the environmental policies can’t improve air quality in the long time.

摘要： 本文研究环境规制政策是否具有改善空气质量的长期效应，以每年污染天数作为空气污染的程度的指标，通过使用比较案例研究中最新出现的“合成控制法”，评估了2008年北京举办奥运会对北京空气质量的影响。研究发现，2008年之后北京空气质量得到一定的改善，2008~2010年平均每年空气污染的天数减少了25天，且该结果在3.2%水平上显著，但是2010年之后，环境政策对北京空气改善作用逐渐消失。本文进一步考察了奥运会对冬季空气质量的影响。发现奥运会之后北京空气质量的改进主要发生在其它季节，而冬季空气质量没有明显改善。最后，本文从中国长期以来经济增长方式、地方官员考核方式和中国地方环境政治的角度，分析了环境政策不具有改善空气质量长期效应的原因。