›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 19-28.

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The Effects of Government Expenditure on Household Consumption ——Based on Spatial Dynamic Panel Model Analysis

  

  • Received:2016-02-27 Revised:2016-04-25 Online:2016-06-10 Published:2016-06-06

政府支出对居民消费的影响研究——基于空间动态面板模型的分析

邓光耀1,李霞1,张忠杰2   

  1. 1. 上海财经大学
    2. 上海财经大学兰州财经大学统计学院副教授
  • 通讯作者: 邓光耀

Abstract: Under maximize consumer utility theory background, combined with statistical yearbook data in China, this paper used space dynamic panel model to study the effects of government expenditures on all residents, urban residents and rural residents’ consumption in 1997 - 2013. The results showed that: there is a significant consumer habits effect; increased government spending and income will promote household consumption. The provinces mutually reinforced relationship of household consumption, there may be competing. Therefore, in order to promote consumer spending, we need to properly maintain good spending habits, change bad spending habits, pay attention to the close cooperation among the provinces, at this stage we can increase government spending to stimulate consumption, especially rural residents’ consumption, and also the need to improve urban residents' disposable income and the net income of rural residents.

摘要: 本文在居民消费效用最大化的理论背景下,结合统计年鉴相关数据,利用空间动态面板模型,研究了1997-2013年中国的政府支出对全体居民、城镇居民以及农村居民消费的影响。研究结果表明:居民消费存在显著的习惯效应,政府支出和居民收入增加会促进居民消费,各省份之间居民消费既可能存在相互促进的关系,也可能存在相互竞争。因此为了促进居民消费,需要适当地保持较好的消费习惯,改变不良的消费习惯,注意省份之间的密切合作,现阶段可以增加政府支出,来刺激居民消费,特别是农村居民消费,另外还需要提高城镇居民可支配收入和农村居民的纯收入。

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