›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (7): 19-29.
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郭晨,刘洪愧,邹恒甫
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Abstract: After the financial crisis, major countries launched government spending plans, While the government consume different goods in these plans. Under this background, we construct a New Keynes model and define the aggregate and structural multiplier to analysis the effects of output when government consume manufactured goods and service goods. We conclude that: (1) government consumption emits its effects through demand-induced, factor flow, expenditure extrusion and wealth effect; (2) When government consume manufactured goods, the aggregate government spending declines, output rises, the output of manufacture sector rises and the output of service sector declines; (3) When government consume service goods, the output of service sector rises. The aggregate government spending is squeezed out obviously. The aggregate output and manufacture output decrease; (4) As the structure of government consumption, that is, the ratio of manufacture goods consumption increases, the aggregate multipliers both rise.
摘要: 金融危机后,主要国家均采取了大规模财政支出计划来刺激经济。但是各种支出计划中,政府消费的产品有所不同。在这种背景下,本文从政府消费不同产品的角度,构建一个包含制造业和服务业两部门的新凯恩斯模型,通过定义和计算总量支出乘数和结构支出乘数,研究政府消费不同产品对总产出和两部门产出的影响。研究表明:(1)政府增加消费某种产品,主要通过需求引致、要素流动、政府总支出的挤出和财富效应四种机制发生作用;(2)政府增加消费制造业产品,会挤出政府总支出,使总产出增加,拉动制造业部门产出,而使服务业部门产出下降;(3)政府增加购买服务业产品时,会使服务业部门产出上升,但是显著挤出政府总支出,制造业部门产出下降,总产出下降;(4)当政府支出结构发生变化时,随着消费制造业产品占总支出的比例的增高,总量支出乘数均发生下降。
郭晨 刘洪愧 邹恒甫. 政府消费性支出的总量乘数和结构乘数[J]. 财经论丛, 2016, 32(7): 19-29.
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https://cjlc.zufe.edu.cn/EN/Y2016/V32/I7/19